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Nott'm Forest vs Brighton

Sat 05 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nott'm Forest win: 29.2%

Draw: 25.5%

Brighton win: 45.2%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.14

More corners: Brighton (42.6% home / 57.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 71.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brighton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 29%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.